The first joint ATP/WTA 1000 event of the clay season is underway in Madrid.  Thursday features first round ATP matches, and second round WTA action.

In the absence of Novak Djokovic, who withdrew from Madrid for “non-medical reasons,” Italy’s Jannik Sinner is the top seed at a Masters 1000 event for the first time in his career.  He is joined atop the ATP singles draw by two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz.  But on Thursday, five-time champ Rafael Nadal is the headliner, as he plays his first match at the Madrid Open in two years, and just his sixth match across the past 15 months.

Three-time Roland Garros champion Iga Swiatek is the top seed in the women’s singles draw , though she’s yet to win this event.  Iga lost in the final a year ago to the second seed, Aryna Sabalenka, who has won this tournament twice within the last three years.  But the WTA’s hottest player right now is Elena Rybakina, coming off her third title of the season last week in Stuttgart, where she beat Swiatek in the semifinals.

Each day, this preview will analyze the two most intriguing matchups, while highlighting other notable matches on the schedule.  Thursday’s play gets underway at 11:00am local time.

Naomi Osaka vs. Liudmila Samsonova (15) – Not Before 12:30pm on Manolo Santana Stadium

It feels quite odd seeing Osaka compete on anything but a hard court.  This is only her 43^rd main draw WTA match on this surface.  She’s been open regarding how uncomfortable she feels on clay, evident in her 4-6 record since 2020.  On Tuesday, Naomi won her first clay court match since this same event in 2022, defeating Greet Minnen 6-4, 6-1.

Samsonova is currently a top 20 player, but has performed far from that level in 2024, with a record of just 4-9 on the year.  She arrives in Madrid on a four-match losing streak, with one of those losses coming against Osaka, last month in Indian Wells.  And like Naomi, clay is not Liudmila’s strongest surface, as she owns a losing record on clay in her career.

Osaka’s 7-5, 6-3 victory last month in Indian Wells is their only prior encounter.  And with Samsonova currently lacking in confidence, I like Naomi’s chances of earning back-to-back wins on clay for the first time since 2019.

Darwin Blanch (WC) vs. Rafael Nadal (PR) – Not Before 5:00pm on Manolo Santana Stadium

Nadal is 54-11 lifetime at his home country’s biggest tournament, where during one span he reached the final in nine out of 11 years.  But sadly the current version of Rafa is far from that level, as his physical limitations have only allowed him to play three events since January of 2023.  When speaking to the press on Wednesday, he expressed continued frustration regarding his injuries, and doubts regarding whether he will compete at Roland Garros. 

Last week in Barcelona, he defeated Flavio Cobolli in straight sets, before losing to Alex de Minaur in straights after a highly-competitive first sets.  His opponent on Thursday in Madrid is a 16-year-old American who trains alongside Carlos Alcaraz at the Juan Carlos Ferrero Academy.  Much is expected of Darwin Blanch, though this is just his second ATP-level match.  Last month in Miami, he lost his first to Tomas Machac.

In what could easily be Nadal’s last appearance in the Madrid Open, Rafa is a slight favorite against the relatively unknown and untested newcomer.  Blanch has a big game, but stepping onto a clay court against The King of Clay is one of tennis’ most intimidating premises, regardless of Nadal’s current form.  And Rafa will of course have a loud and passionate stadium full of Spaniards behind him.

Other Notable Matches on Thursday:

Donna Vekic vs. Maria Sakkari (5) – Sakkari is now 11-3 since hiring David Witt as her new coach, and advanced to the semifinals last year in Madrid.  Vekic is a modest 10-8 this season, but is 6-3 lifetime against Sakkari at all levels.

Coco Gauff (3) vs. Arantxa Rus – While Gauff is 19-6 on the year, she’s just 3-3 in Madrid, and has never been beyond the third round.  This is her first meeting with Rus, who defeated Brenda Fruhvirtova in straight sets on Tuesday.

Iga Swiatek (1) vs. Xiyu Wang – Swiatek is 26-4 in 2024, with two WTA titles (Doha, Indian Wells).  Xiyu was a finalist earlier this year in Austin, and survived an over three-hour three-setter in the first round over Ana Bogdan.

Thursday’s full Order of Play is here.

Rafael Nadal has admitted that he will not play Roland Garros if he feels the way he does today.

The 22-time Grand Slam champion is set to play his third tournament of the season in Madrid as he is set to say farewell to tennis this season.

However before saying goodbye to the sport, Nadal would love one last triumph at Roland Garros a tournament that he has won on 14 different occasions.

That achievement could be one of Nadal’s greatest ever titles considering the Spaniard’s current physical state.

Last week, Nadal said farewell to Barcelona with a second round defeat to Alex De Minaur after a win over Flavio Cobolli in the opening round.

Once again in Madrid Nadal could face Alex De Minaur in the second round should the former world number one defeat 16 year-old Darwin Blanch.

Speaking ahead of the tournament in Madrid Nadal made a big warning explaining that participation at Roland Garros is by no means guaranteed, “If I arrive Paris the way I feel today, I will not play,” Nadal was quoted by tennisuptodate.com as saying.

“I will play Roland Garros if I feel competitive. If I can play, I play. If I can’t play, I can’t. It won’t be the end of the world or the end of my career. I still got goals after Roland Garros, like the Olympics.”

This is a huge statement by Nadal as he is prioritising sustainability as opposed to a fairytale farewell.

Before Nadal can think about a 15th Roland Garros title, the Spaniard will look to claim another title at the Caja Magica.

Ahead of his bid for a sixth title in the Spanish capital Nadal admits he isn’t 100% fit and is taking it one match at a time, “I don’t think I will be able to play at 100%, but it means a lot to me to play in Madrid for one last time in my career. It’s a special place and court for me,” Nadal explained.

“I’m a calm person. Nobody has to ask me about tributes. They will do what they wanna do and I’m okay with that.”

Nadal will begin his Mutua Madrid Open campaign on Thursday.

Carlos Alcaraz admits he is still not able to fully commit to playing at the Madrid Masters despite his opening match scheduled to take place later this week. 

The Spanish world No.3 is in a race against time to be fit for the biggest tennis event held in his native Spain. He hasn’t played a match since Miami last month due to a right arm injury which forced him out of tournaments in Monte Carlo and Barcelona. 

Speaking cautiously to reporters on Tuesday, the two-time Grand Slam champion said he would be happy to play ‘three or four matches‘ in his return from injury. He hasn’t played a Tour-level match on the clay since the Rio Open in February where he rolled his ankle which forced him to retire from his first round encounter after just two games played. 

“There are still a few days until my first match and today (Tuesday) I practised with more intensity”, said Alcaraz. 
“Things have gone well and I’m feeling good. I don’t want to say I’m 100% playing because I don’t want to make assumptions. Right now, with my mentality, I’d be happy to play three or four matches here”.

Alcaraz is bidding to win the Madrid Open for the third consecutive year. A milestone that hasn’t been achieved at the Masters 1000 tournament since it started in 2002. 

“I love competing and every time I lose a competition it hurts”, he said. “Staying at home to recover is a tough feeling for me. Monte Carlo and Barcelona are two amazing tournaments, it particularly hurt to miss the latter. But I’m someone who always looks on the positive side of things and tries to turn them around. When I decided not to go to Barcelona, I started to work hard on my recovery to see if I could get ready for Madrid. I’m excited to get back on court, to play my first official match since Miami. I can’t wait.”

The 20-year-old isn’t the only player on the comeback from injury. Another is Rafael Nadal who returned to action last week in Barcelona. The odds are against the chances of the two facing off against each other in the final, which will take place a week on Sunday. However, Alcaraz says there is always hope. 

“We can imagine lots of things”, he commented. “It would be great to play a final with Rafa in Madrid. A lot of people would want to see that match, so hopefully it happens. But tennis is a complicated game, you can feel different from day to day, every match is unique, and you can never take anything for granted. There is no doubt that he will fight hard in every match, and he would love to be in another final in Madrid. I’m going to try and be at 100% and play well to try and reach that final”.

Alcaraz, who has a bye in the first round, is scheduled to play his first match against either Alexander Shevchenko or Arthur Rinderknech.