Roddick has another chance

Quote/end quote, Andy Roddick, after a monumental performance against Andy Murray thrust him into the Wimbledon championship match on Sunday against Roger Federer.

That's typical Roddick candor and it wasn't some post-match fluff. If he said it, he believed it. But I doubt very seriously if coach Larry Stefanki would have agreed with him when he signed on last December to restyle and rejuvenated Roddick's tennis.

Stefanki, who has coached three No. 1 player (John McEnroe, Marcelo Rios and Yevgeny Kafelnikov) probably isn't going to get Roddick to the top of the rankings. But there's no debating what the two of them have done together this year.

Stefanki sent Roddick out for this semi with a detailed game plan which included getting his derriere to the net. Andy responded and, while it wasn't the sole reason why he pulled this upset, it was a very large contributing factor.

Through his first five matches, here's the percentage of times Roddick played points at net, compared to the total number of points in the match, beginning with Round 1: 9% vs. Jeremy Chardy, 12% vs. Igor Kunitsyn, 18% vs. Jurgen Melzer, 15% vs. Tomas Berdych and 12% vs. Lleyton Hewitt.

On Friday against Murray, Roddick was at the net 26.4% of the time -- 75 times up there to win 48 points and though that winning percentage (64%) isn't Sampras-like, it had two distinct effects on this match.

* One: It helped keep Roddick aggressive, forced him to come forward.

* Two: It put added pressure on Murray. "Added?" Yes, because of the heat Murray already was feeling to become the first male Brit to reach a Wimbledon final since Bunny Austin in 1938. There was an incredible amount of newspaper and broadcast publicity that had rained down on him since he reached the final four on Wednesday. Never mind the increased pressure that would have awaited him if he had won this match.

"All that pressure on him," Roddick mused with great affection for Murray, who readily acknowledged that the young Scot had outplayed him the last two years. But Roddick felt no pressure at all. Few had forecast great things for him here. I had him as my No. 3 player to win, behind Federer and Murray. Most others had him much lower.

Roddick won this match for a number of reasons.

* Tactically, he executed his game plan. He got to the net. He took care of his serve (broken twice and faced only five break points against probably the best returner in the game). He was patient. He picked his spots to get to the net and he picked his spots to play risky for-for-the-line shots.

* Emotionally, he showed how much more solid he is this year than the last two, when he maintained his top-10 ranking but seemed to decline with the rise of Rafa Nadal, Federer, Novak Djokovic and Murray. He was very even keel in this Wimbledon and had to be because he didn't play really brilliant tennis from start to finish of any match, except against Berdych, until the semis. He was, in Roddick's own words, "just OK." On Friday, however, "I played very well," he said.

* Physically, he looked fantastic. He's moving as good or better than ever, even this late in the tournament and after playing some long matches, in which he's give up sets to Chardy, Melzer, Murray and two to Hewitt. His serving has been what you'd expect from Andy and he'll go into this final with a tiebreak record that underscores just how stable and even keel he's been. He's now 26-4 in tiebreaks this year after winning two vs. Murray and 16-1 in tiebreaks since he lost to Nadal at Indian Wells back in March. And the one tiebreak he's lost, at Wimbledon, was 12-10.

For Federer, he'll take an 18-2 head-to-head vs. Roddick into Sunday's match and wins in his last three Roddick matches -- all this year. He split sets with Roddick at Madrid and Key Biscayne and won in straight sets at the Australian Open.

Any hope Roddick has for an upset will defend very heavily on his serving. There isn't much more of a game plan you can concoct for him. Even if he serves well, Federer has a very good history of handling Roddick's deliveries. I'll throw a few germane numbers at you.

For the year, Roddick is winning 79% of his first serve points. In his three losses to Federer this year, he's been no higher than 68%. Maybe 11% doesn't seem like a lot but it's the difference between giving your opponent break point opportunities or not. The last time Roddick defeated Federer was under the lights at Key Biscayne two years ago and he won 77% of his first serve points in that match and overpowered Federer that evening. He'll have to do that to win Wimbledon.

Charles Bricker can be reached at bricker@tennisnews.com

Charles Bricker

• Lars Graff will be chair umpire in the men's final