10/02/2012 CEST - ATP TOUR

What does 2012 hold
for Roger?

federer

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Anyone who thought that it would be impossible for Novak Djokovic to repeat his 2011 season will have to think again. Not only did the Serb win his third major in a row, but he also gave the impression that his dominance over the circuit is not over. Only an extremely determined player can succeed in the titanic feat of playing for 10 hours in two days. Nadal has closed the gap that separated him from the world number 1 last season, he was very close to beating Nole in Melbourne. What role can Federer play in this scenario? The Swiss cannot keep up with his younger rivals and his technical superiority isn't enough anymore.

If we consider that the world number 1 and 2 were worried about their health on the eve of the final and that they went on to play the longest Grand Slam final ever, even a champion of Federer's caliber cannot keep up. Djokovic could become Roger's best ally as the Swiss tries to defend his Grand Slam trophy record. If the Serb hadn't won against Nadal in Wimbledon, New York and Melbourne the Spaniard would have 13 titles (Federer is on 16) with many competitive years ahead of him. Going beyond the complaints on the length of the season, the Spaniard has won 4 of the last 9 Slams and played in seven finals. Actually, it is Federer who should be demanding a change to the ranking system and the seasons schedule considering he hasn't won a Slam in two years.

Destiny can create some absurd situations as the one that the top three players are in right now. Federer often loses to Nadal, even though he can defeat Djokovic who always wins against the Spaniard. Considering this, what would have happened if Roger would have played Nadal in the Paris semifinal rather than Djokovic? Would we be talking about Nole as one of the three players able to complete the Grand Slam? Federer isn't in the top 2 anymore and his position in the top or the bottom half of the draws will have some knock on effects that cannot be predicted, or maybe they can...

Federer can still be the deciding factor between Nadal and Djokovic and who he will hamper will depend on the luck of the draw and his season's program. His impressive list of trophies is still lacking the Davis Cup and the Olympic gold medal which will influence his plans for the season.

His priority is the gold medal, but the “salad bowl” could give him an unexpected joy. Still the idea that Federer could play in Rio 2016 as a 35 year old is not very realistic, so London 2012 will be his last chance to win the Olympic gold. Federer has shown that he can compete at the top level, but he has lost continuity and the number of tournaments played by the Swiss has gradually dropped. But the Davis Cup draw has not been kind to him, after the US he will probably have to play France in the quarterfinals, Spain in the semis and either Argentina or Serbia in the final.

Usually Roger takes a break after the Australian Open until the ATP 500 tournament in Dubai, but this year he has added the Rotterdam tournament and an exhibition match in New York after the Davis Cup tie with the US. The Davis quarterfinals are scheduled straight after the Master 1000 tournaments in Indian Wells and Miami. He will probably have to skip one of the two American Master 1000 tournaments.

His clay court season will depend a lot on his results. He is unlikely to play Montecarlo, Madrid, Rome and Paris as he did last year. Montecarlo is the event he will most likely skip as it isn't a compulsory Master 1000. After the Roland Garros there will be the key moment of his season with the double whammy Slam-Olympics within a month and both at Wimbledon. The extremely busy ATP schedule means that as soon as the Olympic tournament is over there are the Master 1000 events of Toronto and Cincinnati. Federer will skip Toronto and favour Ohio in order to have at least one weeks rest.

Then New York and an eventual Davis Cup semifinal against Spain without Ferrer and Nadal, or will the Majorcan change his plans if there was a meeting with Federer's Switzerland?
Nevertheless he is likely to skip the Asian leg (Tokyo, Beijing and Shanghai) of the ATP tour regardless of his results during the summer, to prepare the last part of the season. Should Switzerland make it to the final, the Davis Cup would become his priority. The event to be sacrificed in this case will be Paris-Bercy (it is scheduled right before the ATP Finals) as he is unlikely to give up his home tournament, the Swiss Indoors in Basel.

It is a tough and complicated path for the Swiss champion. Nobody has ever won a Slam, the Davis Cup and an Olympic gold in the same season. Nadal came close in 2008, he won Roland Garros, Wimbledon the Beijing Olympics, but an injury prevented him from representing Spain in the final against Argentina (that Spain won). In the women's tour Steffi Graf won the Fed Cup and Wimbledon in 1992, but she lost the Olympic final in Barcelona to Jennifer Capriati. In 2000 Venus won the Wimbledon title, the US Open and the Sydney Olympics, but she didn't take part in the Fed Cup final that the US dominated against Spain. The only players to have won all 4 Slams, the end of year Masters, the Davis/Fed Cup and the Olympic singles gold medal in their careers are Andre Agassi and Steffi Graf.

Giacomo Fazio